There are four points races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, with Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350 likely to decide a few spots in the 10-race chase. As the points battle starts to tighten and the cutline becomes more of the focus, we are going to take a swing at predicting which 16 drivers make the 10-race chase.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR The Chase picks for the Cup Series.For the sake of brevity, we’ll initially make our picks by groups (clinched and virtual locks) before getting into individual picks.
Clinched
Toyota has already locked up three of the 16 spots in The Chase thanks to dominant seasons from Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick, with Ty Gibbs also enjoying a breakout year. There is still plenty of reason to care about what is happening at the top, since The Chase format gives a points advantage to first place (2,100 points), second place (2,075 points), and third place (2,065 points) over the rest of the field. Given Hamlin leads Reddick by 84 points, the regular-season champion seems clear. Meanwhile, Reddick is 36 points ahead of Blaney in third, who is only 15 points ahead of Gibbs.
Related: NASCAR Standings Entering Iowa
Virtual Locks
We are not going to see any NASCAR drivers clinch a spot in The Chase this weekend at Iowa Speedway, given that the closest driver (Carson Hocevar) is 100 points away. With that said, there are a handful of Cup Series stars who are at about a 99th percentile chance of making it in. Hocevar, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell have big enough leads with resumes of strong finishes and average points totals to consider these spots all but officially locked up.
Read More: Kyle Larson Sheds Light on When He May Retire from NASCAR
Joey Logano
Not only is Joey Logano going to make The Chase, but the driver of the No. 22 car for Team Penske will enter it riding a wave of momentum. In the last three races, Logano has an average finishing position of 4.33 and he has accrued 150 points in that span. With multiple short-track races coming up to end the regular season, we think Logano jumps William Byron to finish 11th entering the 10-race chase.
Related: NASCAR Predictions for Final Four Regular-Season Races
Daniel Suarez
Kudos to Daniel Suarez for making the most of an opportunity that likely dictated his future in the Cup Series. Even if you take away the Coca-Cola 600 win that was determined by the rain, he has still been very consistent this year and is putting up a rate of average finishing position and top-10s that rivals what he did all the way back in 2022 when he finished 10th in points. Suarez isn’t a contender for the Cup Series championship, but he feels like a safe bet to finish 11th or better in points when the year ends.
Related: NASCAR Drivers Who Greatly Improved in 2026
William Byron
By the standards of Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 24 team, the 2026 season has been disappointing for William Byron. To put things into perspective, Byron is closer to 16th than he is to seventh place in points. Fortunately for Byron, strong finishes earlier in the season still put him well above The Chase cutline right now. Byron and the No. 24 team should not be sweating too much when it comes to making The Chase, but a championship looks like a heavy lift this year.
Shane van Gisbergen
While there are no more road courses on the NASCAR schedule, we view Shane van Gisbergen’s success on short tracks as reason enough to believe he can overtake Bubba Wallace. It will not make too much of a difference in terms of The Chase, since they would only be separated by a few points, but SVG has gone from having a shot at making The Chase to feeling like a strong bet.
Bubba Wallace
If not for some very bad luck paired with a few mistakes by the No. 23 car and the team, Bubba Wallace probably has a much larger advantage over The Chase cutline. Unfortunately, he is now within that range where he cannot afford to rack up any DNFs without jeopardizing his chances of making it in. We are predicting that Wallace gets one top-10 finish in the final four races and the 23 team plays it safe outside of that, just ensuring he gets in.
Austin Cindric
This is certainly continuing the theme of going chalk with our NASCAR The Chase picks, but it is also playing it smart. Austin Cindric has a 38-point lead over Ryan Preece and a 44-point edge over Erik Jones. Neither of those drivers has demonstrated the consistency, especially as of late, to methodically chip away at that advantage. So, given Team Penske’s track record on short tracks, we have Cindric grabbing the 16th and final spot.
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