There are now three races left in the regular season for the NASCAR Cup Series, with Saturday night’s race at Richmond Raceway going to determine a few of the drivers who make it into the 10-race chase. While there’s plenty of focus on the cutline, our focus with the NASCAR The Chase watch today is on drivers who can clinch a spot this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the six NASCAR drivers who could clinch a spot in The Chase and examine the likelihood of it being accomplished. Data is courtesy of scepthan.
Chase Briscoe: 39 Points to Clinch
Who would have thought a few weeks into the season that Chase Briscoe would have the fifth-most points entering Richmond. It was a disastrous start to the season for the No. 19 team, who recorded 2 points at Daytona and combined for 2 points at COTA and Phoenix. They’ve gotten back on track since then and clinching on Saturday night feels like a near certainty. Needing 39 points, Briscoe has scored 36-plus in five of his last six races. He did net just 24 points a year ago at Richmond, so it’s not a guarantee. However, given Toyota’s dominance this season and the likelihood of those below the cutline potentially struggling, we do think Briscoe clinches this weekend.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule at Richmond
Christopher Bell: 43 Points to Clinch
Christopher Bell picked up his seventh second-place finish of the season this past weekend in Iowa. If just one of those ended with a trip to victory lane, he would be a spot higher in the standings. Being without a win this season doesn’t jeopardize his chances of making The Chase, but it does mean the bar to clinch this weekend is a little harder. Bell has scored 39-plus points in four of the last seven races, including 50 at Sonoma and Iowa. We think there’s at least a 60 percent chance of Bell getting the points he needs at Richmond to clinch his spot in the 10-race chase.
Related: NASCAR Standings Right Now
Chase Elliott: 45 Points to Clinch
Chase Elliott is more than capable of scoring the 45 points he needs at Richmond to clinch a spot in The Chase. We’re just skeptical of it happening considering how the No. 9 team has performed lately. For context, Elliott hasn’t scored 40-plus points in a race since his win at Texas Motor Speedway (69 points) and he’s reached the 42-point threshold just once this season. Even if some drivers below The Chase cutline struggle and give him a bit of leeway, we just don’t have a ton of confidence in crew chief Alan Gustafson and the No. 9 team putting Elliott in a position to clinch on Saturday night.
Carson Hocevar: 58 Points to Clinch
Carson Hocevar had a rough day in Iowa this past Sunday due to engine issues with the No. 77 car. Because of it, he dropped three points among the regular-season points leaders and saw his shot of clinching a spot in The Chase this weekend take a hit. With that said, he’s capable of winning at any time and a trip to victory lane alone (55 points) would put him on the brink of clinching and that also tends to mean he picked up a few stage points. In short, Hocevar can clinch with a win and anything short of that would mean he clinches a spot next week in New Hampshire.
Chris Buescher: 65 Points to CLinch
We’ll give this to Chris Buescher, he’s been pretty consistent this season. While he only has a pair of top-five finishes through 23 races, he’s got 10 top-10 finishes with the second-most top-20s (20) in the NASCAR Cup Series. Consistency doesn’t get you 65 points in a single race, that’s only accomplished by making it to victory lane and Buescher hasn’t won on an oval in three years. Realistically, given Buescher has averaged just 22.3 points per race in the last six races, he’s probably not clinching until Daytona.
Kyle Larson: 73 Points to Clinch
Kyle Larson has been the most disappointing NASCAR driver this season, there’s no other way around it. He’s approaching a 50-race winless streak in the Cup Series and is also amid a stretch where he’s recorded 12 or fewer points in four of his last five races. If there’s something that can go wrong on the track, the No. 5 team is finding a way to experience it. With that said, this is Larson we’re talking about. He’s won four races on short tracks since 2023 at the Cup level and is always capable of delivering an utterly dominant performance. That’s what it will take for him to clinch at Richmond.
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