Cup Series qualifying at Richmond Raceway wrapped up late on Friday afternoon, giving us a NASCAR starting lineup for the Cook Out 400 on Saturday night. As we do with every race, we’ve got NASCAR predictions for the Cup Series race under the lights as we near the end of the regular season.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR picks this weekend for the Cookout 400 at Richmond.
Austin Dillon Finishes Outside Top 15
Richmond Raceway has been good to Austin Dillon and the No. 3 team in recent years. In the Next Gen car, Dillon has a pair of wins with three top-five finishes and the seventh-best average finishing position (12.0) in the Cup Series at this track. There is ample reason why he is one of the more popular NASCAR picks this weekend. Friday changed that for us. Dillon wasn’t happy with the setup for the No. 3 car, and for good reason. It placed 31st in best lap time during practice and wound up qualifying 16th. Even with some overnight changes and his impressive history on short tracks, the car Richard Childress Racing gave Dillon this weekend and the overall performance by the pit crew lead us to believe he will finish 16th or worse in the Cook Out 400.
Ty Gibbs Wins Stage 1 at Richmond
Coming off his second win of the season, Ty Gibbs qualified fourth for the Cook Out 400 on Saturday night. Teams have emphasized how important pit stops will be at Richmond Raceway and the No. 54 car has the fastest average pit stop time (10.09) in the NASCAR Cup Series this season. While the occasional mistake can still be made and we suspect Ford will be delivering the best finishes on the final stage, Gibbs and the No. 54 team have something to challenge for early. Gibbs has a real opportunity to create some breathing room between himself and Tyler Reddick in regular-season points and being in the top-three is a major advantage for The Chase. We have Gibbs winning Stage 1 on Saturday night.
Related: NASCAR Drivers Who Can Clinch A Spot in The Chase This Weekend at Richmond
Josh Berry Makes It Three Consecutive Top-10 Finishes
Josh Berry’s NASCAR career is on the line right now. Wood Brothers Racing already announced he won’t be back next year and the number of full-time Cup Series seats in 2027 are quickly dwindling. At this point the veteran driver might have to settle for a spot in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series next year. That is, unless he can maintain his hot streak. Berry finished seventh in the Brickyard 400 and returned from the one-week break with a fourth-place finish last Sunday at Iowa. Think he falls back to earth on Saturday? We’ll note that Berry posted the third-best lap time in qualifying (22.281) and he was 10th in practice. We’re riding with Berry for another week, picking him for a top-10 finish for the third consecutive race.
Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2
Bubba Wallace and the No. 23 team aren’t in the ‘danger zone’ when it comes to The Chase cutline, but they would certainly feel a lot better if they had a bit of a larger gap. Fortunately for Wallace, as he stated on the radio during qualifying on Friday night, he loved the car setup done by 23XI Racing. We also have to highlight Wallace’s history at Richmond Raceway. Since 2023, he ranks third in laps led (206) on this short track and he’s finished second or higher in a stage in each of the last four races here. In the Cook Out 400, we’ve got Wallace taking Stage 2 and ending the night among the top-five point scorers. It won’t clinch a Chase spot, but he’ll be close.
Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick Place Outside Top 10
How bad have things been for Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson as of late? Let’s put things into perspective. In the last six races, Larson has the third-worst average finishing position (26.0) among full-time drivers. Reddick (26.0) hasn’t been much better, and that’s with the two Cup Series championship contenders ranking third (Larson, 7.8) and fifth (Reddick, 11.3) in average starting position in that same six-race span. Their luck will eventually turn around, but here’s the problem. Larson qualified 30th for Saturday’s race at Richmond and Reddick (32nd) was more than 0.5 seconds slower than the front of the field. Changes to the cars will be made overnight, but we suspect that poor starting position will get at least one of the two caught up in a wreck and the other will have a strategy call to flip things backfire.
Ryan Blaney Wins the Cook Out 400
It feels just as important, if not more so, that Ryan Blaney gets to pick the first pit stall for the Cook Out 400. Earning the pole with the fastest car on the track in qualifying is just the icing on the cake. Blaney showcased the same dominant speed in the No. 12 car that he had in Iowa, where he completely controlled Stage 1 before some poor timing and traffic took him out of contention for the win and he had to settle for third place. Rounding out our Cook Out 400 picks, we’ve got Blaney making his way to victory lane.
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