The NASCAR race this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the penultimate battle of the regular season, meaning several Cup Series drivers will clinch The Chase spots on Sunday afternoon.
As we do every weekend, we’re making NASCAR predictions for what driver makes it to victory lane, stage winners and more. Let’s dive right into our Dollar Tree 301 picks.
Joey Logano Wins the Pole at Loudon
He’s back. Joey Logano has won two of the last four NASCAR Cup Series races and now heads to a track that Team Penske loves. Last year at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Logano earned the pole (29.16 seconds) by a 0.17-second gap with teammate Ryan Blaney (29.33 seconds) right behind him. In related news, Logano (3.7) and Blaney (3.0) have the highest average starting position at Loudon in the last three races. We’ve got the No. 22 car racing its way to the pole on Saturday.
Related: NASCAR Qualifying Order This Weekend at New Hampshire
Christopher Bell Wins Stage 1
It is a season full of second-place finishes for Christopher Bell and the No. 20 team. Just one trip to victory lane this year would put them fifth in the standings and right behind teammate Chase Briscoe. The statistical models for The Chase have highlighted the importance of being fifth or better, because of the points advantage, in order to have the best shot at winning a Cup Series championship. Stage points matter more than ever, and after getting a top-five qualifying on Saturday, we think it will be another stage win for a Toyota car with Bell taking it this time.
Related: NASCAR Drivers Who Can Clinch The Chase Spots This Weekend
Bubba Wallace Gets a DNF
Loudon has not been great for Bubba Wallace, as evidenced by a 22.7 average finishing position at this track that ranks 26th in the Cup Series since 2023. It also doesn’t help that because of issues last week, Wallace is going in the middle of qualifying on Saturday. We think that will result in pedestrian track position for the No. 23 car, and while Wallace will get some points in Stage 1, some bad fortune and a mistake will get him involved in a race-ending wreck. The DNF will suddenly make The Chase cutline more interesting at Daytona.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule at Loudon
Ryan Blaney Wins Stage 2
Ryan Blaney dominated at this track a year ago, winning Stage 1 and leading 116 laps before racing his way to victory lane. While his results in the summer have been more sporadic, especially in recent years, there’s no denying the speed the No. 12 car is showing right now. Blaney will leave New Hampshire with another stage win, while also finishing the day in the top five with the third-most points.
Denny Hamlin Wins Dollar Tree 301, Clinches Regular-Season Title
While we have Denny Hamlin narrowly finishing behind Logano and Blaney in qualifying on Saturday, he’ll finish first where it matters most. Hamlin has been the best driver in NASCAR this season and the No. 11 car always seems to be put in a great position to at least record a top-five finish. Plus, Toyota has basically owned the intermediate tracks this season with their setups. Hamlin makes his way to victory lane on Sunday at New Hampshire, clinching the regular-season title with his fifth win of the year.
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