Kyle Larson knows the #5 team has not been where it wants to be in 2026. The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion enters the 2026 postseason facing a 50-race winless drought.
But he also knows something the rest of the field should not forget: this is almost exactly where he was one year ago.
Larson enters the 2026 Chase as the #7 seed, 55 points behind Denny Hamlin. After 26 regular-season races, he has 0 wins, nine top-five finishes, 13 top-10s, and 659 laps led. His average finish sits at 17.23.
That is a major drop from where Larson stood entering last year’s playoffs.
In 2025, the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion was the #1 seed with three wins, 15 top fives and 22 top 10s, finishing the regular season with 2,032 points.
But Larson’s own assessment is far more optimistic.
“You know, you’re really close to just taking that next step of being back to where we want to be.”
That has been the frustrating part of Larson’s season. The speed appears close, but the #5 team has struggled to put everything together consistently.
“But then, yeah, it gives you motivation for the next week, and then you go there and you’re like, Oh my gosh, like, how did we miss it this badly again?”
Kyle Larson Refuses to Panic
Those inconsistencies could easily convince a championship contender that something needs to change before the Chase. Larson sees it differently.
“I mean, honestly though, we talk a lot about this car, but at this point last year, we weren’t any different honestly than what we are right now, I don’t believe.”
That comparison could be the biggest warning for Larson’s rivals.
At this point last year, Toyota teams were considered the dominant force entering the playoffs. Larson’s №5 team was not entering the final 10 races as the obvious favorite.
Yet it still won the championship.
“The Toyotas were far above the best cars at this point starting the playoffs last year. We were in a better seeding position. We didn’t win a single race in the final ten, and we won the championship.”
The numbers back up the biggest part of Larson’s argument. He had three wins before the 2025 playoffs and finished as the №1 seed, compared with zero wins and the №7 seed this year.
So this year’s road is clearly tougher.
Can Larson Do It Again This Year?
Larson’s championship path is more difficult this time. He starts seven spots into the Chase, and his 55-point deficit to Hamlin is the largest gap between the top seed and Larson.
But he does not believe winning the final 10 races is necessary.
Last year’s championship proved that. “So, yeah, we can do it again this year.”
But this year is different. NASCAR has brought back The Chase, but the championship is no longer decided by winning one final race or surviving elimination rounds. The 2026 format puts greater weight on the full season and rewards consistency across all 10 Chase races.
That makes Larson’s challenge more complicated. Last year, he could survive a winless final 10 and still become champion. This time, there is no single championship race waiting at the end to erase everything that came before it. Every Chase race matters.
So while Larson has already proved he can win a title without dominating the final 10, he cannot simply rely on the same formula this year. His №5 team needs to turn its speed into consistent finishes, because this championship will be decided over the entire Chase, not one dramatic finale.
And that could be the biggest test of Larson’s title defense.
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