NASCAR’s the 10-race chase begins this weekend at Darlington Raceway, with 16 drivers all competing in a points battle to determine the Cup Series champion in 2026. Chaos and disappointment are a given, but we’re going to attempt to make a few NASCAR The Chase predictions for what happens in the next 10 weeks.
Let’s dive into some quick bold NASCAR predictions for The Chase.
HEADING
The reigning champion hasn’t been to victory lane in the Cup Series in over 50 races, with his last win coming in the AdventHealth 400 back in May 2025. That’s just one of the reasons why Kyle Larson finds himself 55 points behind Denny Hamlin right now in the 10-race chase. We’re confident the winless drought is ending for the No. 5 car very soon. It won’t come at Darlington, but we will predict that Larson finds his way back to victory lane at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Sept. 19.
Denny Hamlin Gets Wrecked, Picks Up First DNF of Season
Of the 16 drivers competing in NASCAR The Chase this season, 10 have three or more DNFs this season. Denny Hamlin isn’t just the only competing driver in the 10-race chase to not have a single DNF this year, he’s the only full-time driver without one in the entire Cup Series. It’s certainly a credit to his ability to avoid wrecks, the consistency of the No. 11 car and how good his team has been at avoiding mistakes. With that said, unfortunate fate comes for everyone and the future Hall of Famer isn’t excluded from that. Hamlin is going to get caught up in a wreck, we think in one of the first five races, getting his first DNF of the entire season. It will be the first time all year that he scores single-digit points and only the second time (11 at Sonoma) that he scores fewer than 20.
Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney Win 4 Combined Races
Even-year magic? We’re not willing to go quite that far, at least not in Joey Logano‘s case since he is 65 points behind Hamlin and it would take a lot to go right to narrow that gap in 10 races. With that said, we do think Team Penske’s top drivers pull out four combined wins in this stretch. Logano will get a win on Sept. 13 in the Enjoy Illinois 300 (World Wide Technology Raceway). Ryan Blaney then gets a win two weeks later at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with two more wins between them in the final five races.
Carson Hocevar Wins His Second Race of Season
Carson Hocevar and the No. 77 team know that, realistically, they have no shot of winning the championship this season. As he’s said in interviews, he’s playing with “house money” in The Chase. When in a position like that, where a DNF isn’t as impactful compared to drivers realistically in the mix with every point making a difference, Hocevar can be more…aggressive. We don’t know when it will happen, but we think Hocevar wins a race in the next 10 weeks.
Chase Briscoe is 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Predicting Denny Hamlin to win The Chase just wouldn’t be bold enough, and we do have him picking up a DNF during this 10-race stretch. Instead, we’re going with his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe. Toyota is set up perfectly to win the championship given the tracks on the schedule, and Briscoe has the fourth-best average finishing position (11.5) in the last 15 races and the fourth-best in the last six (9.0). We’re picking Briscoe to come out of this thing on top, finishing just 3 points ahead of Hamlin for the Cup Series title.
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