We’re now past the halfway point in the 10-race chase, with only five races remaining in the season for the 2026 Cup Series. With The Chase battle coming down to the wire, it’s about time to make some picks for who will come out on top.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for which drivers will win the final fives races in The Chase.
Bank of America 400 (Charlotte): Denny Hamlin
This weekend’s race in Charlotte isn’t a must-win situation for Denny Hamlin, but the No. 11 team can’t afford another disappointment. They’re already 40 points back from Kyle Larson and one slip-up in the Bank of America 400 could even drop them to third. Momentum is simply needed. Toyota clearly still has the speed to dominate on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks and Hamlin did earn the pole this past weekend at Las Vegas. We think Hamlin rebounds on Sunday, earning the win and picking up 70-plus points.
Related: NASCAR Schedule this Weekend at Charlotte
Freeway Insurance 500 (Phoenix): Ryan Blaney
This is a must-win situation for Ryan Blaney. We’re pretty confident that Hamlin and Kyle Larson will leave Charlotte top-three in points for that race, giving Blaney a four-week window to erase what will be more than an 80-point deficit. The path to making that happen all comes down to Phoenix Raceway. He’s won consecutive races here, including the fall race that was overshadowed by the Cup Series championship. There will be no overshadowing this victory, with Blaney finishing with 74 out of a possible 75 stage points to narrow his deficit in The Chase.
Related: NASCAR The Chase Standings Right Now
YellaWood 500 (Talladega): Carson Hocevar
Yes, we’re predicting consecutive wins for Carson Hocevar at Talladega. Spire Motorsports and the No. 77 team have made it very clear they have nothing to lose in The Chase, they’re basically playing with house money. That means points don’t matter as much as Hocevar earning himself another win, which would also tie him with Corey Heim (two) for Cup Series wins in 2026. We anticipate seeing the most aggressive version of Hocevar we’ve seen all year and it results in him making it back to victory lane at Dega.
Xfinity 500 (Martinsville): Joey Logano
Joey Logano probably isn’t going to win The Chase this year, but he’ll make things interesting. After coming up just short at Phoenix to teammate Ryan Blaney, the driver of the No. 22 car will get his moment two weeks later. At the track where he boasts a 6.0 average finishing position in the last seven races, Logano does what he hasn’t in nearly a decade. He holds off Larson, Logano and Christopher Bell to make it to victory lane at Martinsville for the first time since 2018.
Championship Race (Miami): Kyle Larson
It would only be appropriate if the winner of the final race of the season is also the Cup Series champion. Kyle Larson has already won two races in The Chase so far and he nearly could’ve had two more trips to victory lane. While we don’t have the No. 5 car winning another between Charlotte and Martinsville, he’ll cap the season off with a banger. At his best track, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Larson wins the final race of the season and earns 75 points. It will officially make him the 2026 Cup Series champion, back-to-back titles for the team.
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