The regular-season finale for the NASCAR Cup Series is this weekend at Daytona International Speedway. Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 under the lights on NBC will determine which drivers earn the final spots in The Chase.
We’ve already seen 13 spots locked up through 25 races. It’s also worth noting that Denny Hamlin has clinched the regular-season title, while Ryan Blaney (second place), Ty Gibbs (third place) and Tyler Reddick (fourth place) are effectively locked into their positions. As for fifth place, teammates Christopher Bell (11-point advantage) and Chase Briscoe (727 points) will be battling for two pivotal spots in the 10-race Chase.
Ahead of this weekend’s race at Daytona, here are the drivers still eligivle to earn a spot in The Chase and the clinching scenarios that would get them in. We’ve also included predictions.
Bubba Wallace: 2 Point to Clinch, Seeding Opportunities
Clinching a spot in The Chase on Saturday night will be pretty easy for Bubba Wallace. As long as he starts the race and earns a point, he’s probably in The Chase barring an unexpected tiebreaker scenario and 2 points guarantees him a spot. The No. 23 team could play it safe at Daytona, but they do have something to race for this weekend. Wallace is just 8 points behind Daniel Suárez (13th place) and 14 points behind William Byron (12th place). Moving up a spot would be an additional 5 playoff points, and overtaking Byron would give him 12 additional points for The Chase. Daytona is unpredictable, especially with no practice and the changes NASCAR made this season, but it’s worth noting Byron (14.6 average finishing position) has outperformed Wallace (17.0 average finishing position), which is slightly ahead of Suárez (18.4) in the last seven races here.
- Prediction: Finishes 13th, overtaking Daniel Suarez
Related: NASCAR Schedule This Weekend at Daytona, Qualifying and Race Time
Austin Cindric: 44 Point Above Cutline
Austin Cindric isn’t guaranteed a spot in The Chase, but there’s a high probability of making it in. Given that he’s 31 points behind Bubba Wallace, with Wallace holding the tiebreaker, it would effectively take a DNF from the No. 23 team for Cindric to move up to 14th. What this comes down to is Cindric versus Shane van Gisbergen (13 points behind Cindric) and Ryan Preece. Cindric has not performed well here as of late, with a 25.9 average finishing position (fourth-worst) in the last seven races, but he has finished 2nd in a stage (9 points each) three times in his last five trips to Daytona and fourth (7 stage points) at the summer race in 2024. A top-five stage finish would effectively require SVG or Preece to win at Daytona in order to bump Cindric out.
Shane van Gisbergen: 31 Points Above Cutline
Sitting 13 points behind Austin Cindric, the likeliest scenario is that Shane van Gisbergen enters The Chase in 16th place. The good news is that the odds are still in his favor of making it in. Daytona hasn’t been particularly good to him since he made his Cup Series debut, and Trackhouse Racing’s setups have been an issue throughout the year. We don’t expect SVG to qualify well at Daytona, and that will at least open the door for Preece to overtake him. However, just avoiding The Big One and picking up a handful of stage points (6-plus) would effectively put Preece into a spot where he needs to win the race or get a top-five with a stage win.
Ryan Preece: 31 Points Below The Chase Cutline
The battle for the final spot in The Chase would be very compelling if NASCAR hadn’t penalized Ryan Preece 25 points for saying on the radio at Texas Motor Speedway that he was going to intentionally hit Ty Gibbs. Saying it out loud, rather than doing it intentionally without announcing it, would’ve meant that Preece is just 6 points back of SVG (as he is in the owner standings). Preece is 31 points behind SVG, or 32 if you factor in that van Gisbergen holds the tiebreaker. Overcoming that at Daytona is possible, especially if Preece performs well in the stages. Unfortunately for the No. 60 team, Preece has the second-worst average finishing position (28.6) among full-time drivers in the last seven starts at Daytona, and while SVG (28.5) hasn’t fared any better in four races, so much would need to be executed right for Preece to sneak in.
- Prediction: Finishes 15 Points Shy
Related: NASCAR Standings Entering Daytona
Brad Keselowski: Must-Win and Get Stage Points
The probability of Brad Keselowski making it into The Chase this season is probably around 1 percent. Not only would the No. 6 car need to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400 (55 points), but he would also need to get at least 11 stage points with SVG wrecking out in the first stage. Keselowski won at Daytona a decade ago, but we’re also in an era where the driver who makes it to victory lane doesn’t often perform really well on the stages at Daytona. Barring a miracle scenario, Keselowski is out.
- Prediction: Brad Keselowski prioritizes pushing Ryan Preece, both miss The Chase
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