Denny Hamlin could hardly have asked for a better way to enter NASCAR’s new Chase.
Hamlin enters the 2026 Chase as the No.1 seed after one of the strongest regular seasons of his career. He finished with 4 wins, 14 top-five finishes and 17 top-10s, while remaining the only Chase driver without a DNF through the first 26 races.
His seventh-place finish at New Hampshire officially locked up the top seed.
That gives Hamlin 2,100 points heading into the Chase, 25 ahead of Ryan Blaney at 2,075. NASCAR’s new format rewards the regular-season champion, but that advantage is smaller than it sounds.
A single win is worth 55 points.
So Hamlin’s 25-point cushion can disappear very quickly.
That is why the debate around Hamlin isn’t really about whether he has been the best driver this year, he clearly has, but the real question is whether the No.11 team can survive ten races without giving the competition an opening.
NASCAR Experts See Almost No Weakness in Hamlin
Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck discussed Hamlin’s championship chances on The Teardown podcast, and for them, finding a genuine weakness in the No.11 team isn’t easy.
Bianchi dismissed the idea that bad luck should even count as a weakness.
“But that’s not even, like, a weakness. That’s not anything in their realm of control whatsoever. Like, yeah, Hamlin’s luck sucks. And we get that,” Bianchi said.
Then came the bigger compliment.
“Denny’s arguably the hardest-working driver in the sport,” Bianchi said. “He studies the most. The team is on their game. The Toyota has the best cars this year. Joe Gibbs Racing is the best team. They check all the boxes.”
Hamlin has been one of the most consistent drivers in the field, and he also put together a stretch of three consecutive wins at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono earlier in the season.
NASCAR itself noted that Hamlin’s New Hampshire result was his sixth finish of seventh or better in seven races.
That is difficult to beat over a long championship run.
There is another huge advantage for Hamlin. He has already won at every track on the 2026 Chase schedule.
- Darlington: Five wins.
- Bristol: Four.
- Kansas: More Cup wins there than any other driver.
- Las Vegas: Three.
- Martinsville: Six.
- Homestead: Three.
Those numbers certainly don’t guarantee another trophy, but they make the schedule look far less intimidating for Hamlin than it does for some of his rivals.
And the final race could be particularly important.
Can Denny Hamlin Finally Win the Cup Series Title?
The 2026 championship will be decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where Hamlin has won three times. Unlike the previous elimination system, every Chase driver stays alive throughout the 10-race postseason, with the championship going to whoever finishes with the most points.
That completely changes the strategy.
There is no need to survive three rounds and then win a winner-take-all finale. Consistency matters across the entire Chase. That should suit Hamlin.
But it also means his 25-point advantage is not nearly enough to relax.
NASCAR’s new system gives all 16 Chase drivers a fresh points total based on their regular-season finish. Hamlin starts at 2,100, while the 16th seed starts at 2,000. There are no eliminations after that.
Hamlin has 64 career Cup victories without a championship, and has finished second twice, including last season. For years, Hamlin has been the driver who gets close enough to make people believe, only for something to go wrong when the championship is finally within reach.
Now he has perhaps the best combination he has ever had: a fast Toyota, a strong JGR organization, tremendous consistency and a Chase schedule filled with tracks where he has already won.
Bianchi summed up the opportunity. “I feel clearly this is Denny Hamlin’s year. I feel like this is his championship to lose”
And if the JGR driver does not win this year, the criticism will be obvious.
Hamlin had the №1 seed. He had the fastest cars and four wins. He had experience at every track and the points advantage. And he had a championship format that rewarded consistency rather than forcing everything into one final race.
But NASCAR only needs one bad pit stop, one mechanical problem or one mistake at the wrong time to turn a championship favorite into another what if?
Is Hamlin finally about to get the championship everyone says he should win, or are we heading toward another heartbreak?
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