Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway will mark the 22nd points race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. The regular season is quickly drawing to a close, with three drivers (Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney) already having locked up three of the 16 spots in The Chase.
As always, courtesy to great work by Reddit user scepthan, a The Chase points to clinch tracker has been created to monitor how close your favorite drivers are to making it in.
Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR The Chase tracker, looking at how many points the top drivers are from clinching a spot in the 10-race chase ahead of Sunday’s race. Right now, we’re focused on drivers within 200 points of clinching. However, the final slide shows how many points down drivers ranked 11th through 16th in points are from locking up a spot.
Ty Gibbs: 47 Points Needed to Clinch
Ty Gibbs is the only Cup Series driver with a shot at clinching a spot in The Chase this weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Granted, it’s going to take a great showing in the Brickyard 400. Gibbs was 97 points back last weekend, picking up 43 points for the second consecutive race. He did have 54 points at Sonoma and he’s recorded 47-plus points five times (COTA, Martinsville, Bristol, Charlotte, and Sonoma) this season, so there’s at least a shot of him clinching. Of note, he netted just 16 points last year at the Brickyard thanks to a 21st-place finish. We’d bet he clinches in Iowa on Aug. 9.
Related: Brickyard 400 Entry List
Chase Elliott: 121 Points Needed to Clinch
Chase Elliott went to North Wilkesboro needing 153 points to clinch a spot in The Chase, and a disappointing showing (17th place and 24 points) means he is still three-plus races back of locking himself in. Elliott finished 13th in the Brickyard 400 last year, not earning any stage points, so the No. 9 team may want to make that a bigger priority on Sunday. It will likely be mid-August when his spot is clinched.
Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule Indianapolis
Kyle Larson: 141 Points Needed to Clinch
It’s been a rough three-week stretch for the No. 5 team. Thanks to a pit-road collision last Sunday night at North Wilkesboro, Kyle Larson finished with just 22 points, and he’s averaged just 15 points per race in that three-week span. That explains why he’s still so far away from clinching. Fortunately for Larson, he’s got a great track record at Indianapolis, and his first Cup win of the season in this crown-jewel race would put him within 90 points of locking up a spot in The Chase.
Related: NASCAR Standings Entering Indianapolis, The Chase Cutline
Carson Hocevar: 160 Points Needed to Clinch
Carson Hocevar did some nice work, despite an underwhelming finish, cutting into his magic number (204 points) at North Wilkesboro. Now the No. 77 car is headed to Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where he picked up 35 points last summer thanks to a 10th-place finish aided by seventh-place finishes in each of the first two stages. Hocevar has become a more consistent finisher in 2026 and while finding victory lane in the Brickyard 400 seems unlikely, 35-45 points is doable.
Chase Briscoe: 172 Points Needed to Clinch
Going into the race last weekend, Chase Briscoe sat 226 points back of clinching his spot in the 10-race Chase. The No. 19 delivered a third-place finish with a great showing in the stages, leaving North Wilkesboro with 45 points. Briscoe has now recorded 37-plus points in three of the last four races and 41-plus points in three of the last six races. With how dominant Toyota has been this season at tracks like Indianapolis, another 40-plus points is very much on the table come Sunday.
Chris Buescher: 175 Points Needed to Clinch
A bad night in North Wilkesboro resulted in Chris Buescher being unable to cut down significantly into his magic number (198 last week). The No. 17 team and RFK Racing have a good chance to make up for it this weekend in Indianapolis. Buescher earned 31 points in the Brickyard 400 last year, but he did place 22nd the year prior. Realistically, Buescher probably isn’t clinching his spot in The Chase until late August at the earliest.
Christopher Bell: 186 Points Needed to Clinch
Christopher Bell‘s run of three consecutive top-five finishes, including second at Chicagoland and EchoPark, came to an abrupt end last Sunday night with a 19th-place finish at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Because of the mediocre points day (23), his magic number only saw a moderate drop (217 to 186). Thankfully for Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota’s dominance on intermediate tracks this season paired with Bell’s recent history in the Brickyard 400 (8th place in 2025 and 4th place in 2024) means he has a real shot at the win this Sunday. Even if he falls short of that, we feel pretty confident predicting Bell to pick up 40-plus points in Indianapolis and seriously cut into that magic number.
Drivers Who are 200-Plus Points Back
Here’s a quick breakdown of how many points away from clinching drivers in 11th through 16th place are from locking up a spot in The Chase.
- Daniel Suarez – 204 Points
- William Byron – 217 Points
- Bubba Wallace – 233 Points
- Shane van Gisbergen – 249 Points
- Joey Logano – 255 Points
- Austin Cindric – 272 Points
Every driver below The Chase cutline is 300-plus points back of clinching, so they will need a lot to go right over the final five regular-season races to earn a spot and that would only come during the regular-season finale at Daytona.
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