Who will win the NASCAR race this weekend? NASCAR predictions at Daytona are never particularly easy, even more so for this weekend’s race with the new rules package and no practice for the teams to work through things.
If that didn’t make NASCAR predictions this weekend difficult enough, we’re taking things a step further with our Coke Zero Sugar 400 picks by doing it before qualifying on Friday night. So, with that in mind, let’s have the rampant speculation and dart throws begin.
Kyle Larson Wins the Pole at Daytona
Kyle Larson hasn’t won the pole all season. Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 5 team are locked into The Chase, but they could use some momentum before the regular season comes to an end. Larson does have the second-best average starting position (9.7) at Daytona since 2023 and he is going toward the end on Friday night. With the speeds the No. 5 has shown at times this season and the gravity of the situation, we think he’ll earn the pole position.
Related: NASCAR Qualifying Order Today at Daytona
Bubba Wallace, SVG, Austin Cindric Clinch The Chase Spots
Bubba Wallace needs just 2 points to clinch his spot in The Chase, so that is a foregone conclusion. Over at Team Penske, Austin Cindric sits 44 points above the cutline and it would require Ryan Preece to perform well in both stages and then end the night with a top-10 finish. That seems improbable. As for Preece vs. Shane van Gisbergen, we suspect the No. 97 team will do just enough to comfortably make it into The Chase by about a 15-point margin (enters +31).
Related: NASCAR The Chase Clinch Scenarios at Daytona
William Byron Picks Up DNF in Wreck, Falls in The Chase
The 2026 regular season can only be viewed as a disappointment for William Byron and the No. 24 team. He enters Daytona 12th in points, with Daniel Suarez (6 points behind) and Bubba Wallace (14 points behind) having a chance to overtake him entering the 10-race chase. It doesn’t help that Byron is 17th in the qualifying order on Friday night and the car’s performance and luck have been sporadic, at best, this summer. We’re predicting that Byron is again caught up in a wreck, picking up a DNF that puts him outside the top 28 and that allows both Suarez and Wallace to overtake him. Those 10 points lost will be costly come The Chase.
Carson Hocevar Leads in Final Laps, Creates Big Wreck Before Finish
There was a temptation to pick Carson Hocevar to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday night. It would certainly create an unforgettable atmosphere at Daytona International Speedway. However, as well-suited as his driving style is for this track, he also needs a little support from his peers to get pushed to a position where he could win. Come Saturday night, we suspect that Hocevar will momentarily have the lead within the final 3 laps and then when the No. 77 car starts to fall back a bit, Hocevar makes an aggressive move that takes out a quarter of the front and sends it into OT.
Chase Elliott Wins Coke Zero Sugar 400 in Overtime
With The Chase approaching, there hasn’t been much talk about Chase Elliott as one of the primary contenders. It’s relatively fair, considering he’s eighth in the standings with a modest amount (six) of top-five finishes. The discourse changes after Saturday night. With one of the best performances of the year for Hendrick Motorsports, Elliott and Larson are near the front of the field at the end. Elliott avoids the big wreck, putting himself at the front of the field for overtime. That’s when the No. 9 car, with some help from other Chevy drivers, earns his third win of the regular season. It will also vault him up to sixth in The Chase, a big points boost to help his championship hopes.
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